Gotterup, Chris
Our: 4.8% · Mkt: 2.2% @ +3563 · Edge: +2.6pp
First Riviera start (no course-history adjustment) and minor form drag (−0.03 SG) barely budge a strong DataGolf baseline. Market at +3563 (2.2%) is pricing nearly half his true probability.
VALUE
Henley, Russell
Our: 4.5% · Mkt: 2.5% @ +3103 · Edge: +1.9pp
Negative course history (−0.84 SG avg over 10 Riviera apps) and soft recent form (−0.03 SG drag) both pull him below baseline, yet a high skill floor (1.56 SG) keeps the model at 4.5%. Market at +3103 is pricing the negatives twice over.
VALUE
Noren, Alex
Our: 2.6% · Mkt: 0.8% @ +9885 · Edge: +1.8pp
Strong recent form has pushed Noren +0.28 SG above his baseline — a meaningful lift at his skill tier. The market’s +9885 barely prices in this form momentum, leaving a 1.8pp edge despite slight negative course history (−0.38 SG avg, 5 apps).
VALUE
Lee, Min Woo
Our: 3.4% · Mkt: 1.7% @ +4749 · Edge: +1.7pp
Cold recent stretch (−1.33 SG form drag) has suppressed his model number, yet the market at +4749 (1.7%) discounts him even further than the data warrants. Only 2 Riviera apps limit course-history signal; baseline skill (1.33 SG) supports a recovery case.
VALUE
Fleetwood, Tommy
Our: 1.9% · Mkt: 3.7% @ +2092 · Edge: −1.8pp
Hot recent form (+0.64 SG above baseline) is already fully baked into the model’s 1.9%, but the market at +2092 (3.7%) prices him nearly double that — likely overweighting his Riviera narrative. Course history shows a modest drag (−0.09 SG avg over 5 apps).
FADE
Cantlay, Patrick
Our: 0.8% · Mkt: 2.8% @ +2754 · Edge: −2.0pp
Good Riviera course history (+0.67 SG avg over 8 apps) is reflected in the model, but recent form drag (−0.14 SG) and a modest baseline leave the model at just 0.8%. Market at +2754 (2.8%) appears to be pricing course history alone.
FADE
McIlroy, Rory
Our: 2.7% · Mkt: 6.1% @ +1234 · Edge: −3.3pp
Cold form (−0.23 SG drag) and poor Riviera history (−0.84 SG avg over 9 apps) both pull McIlroy below his baseline. The market’s +1234 (6.1%) looks like it’s pricing world ranking, not the data, leaving a 3.3pp model edge to the fade.
FADE
Scheffler, Scottie
Our: 11.3% · Mkt: 18.0% @ +348 · Edge: −6.7pp
Form and course history are net-neutral for Scheffler (+0.02 SG combined), keeping him near his 3.0 SG baseline. The market’s 18% likely reflects 2024 dominance recency bias; his Riviera record shows a −0.41 SG course penalty over 6 apps. Model says 11.3% — the implied 6.7pp overpricing is the widest fade on the board.
FADE